Revolutionary Change

Revolutions have been called violent uprisings or dramatic changes in social structure, whether being violent or non violent. I believe revolutions are change in society and were violent in nature and supported by the masses. I do not believe that non-violent movements should be called revolutions. Case in point for me would be what many called the hippie revolution.

Then there is the debate about what causes revolutions. Well, Karl Marx said that revolutions were inevitable due to inexorable historical forces. He believed that the lower classes would revolt against the upper, landowning, capitalist classes, and that theses revolutions would occur in industrialized nations. As it turns out, these revolutions occurred in nations where the country was not industrialized. Lenin started the Soviet Union with his October Revolution, Mao Zedong changed Marx's political views to adapt them better to Chinese society, and Ho Chi Minh turn Marxism into a populist feeling and uprising. Che Guevara mimicked what Ho Chi Minh did in Cuba.

The next reason is Regime Decay. This occurred in Russia when Lenin had his revolution and in China with Mao. This occurred because the government in power had lost its legitimacy because of war, foreign debt or military entanglements. The masses were led by what Handelman calls “marginal elites.” This again occurred in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. These types of revolutions are not brought about by the revolutionaries themselves, but they are brought about by the apparent ineptitude of the current government prompts these people to act. Peasants join revolutions because their way of life has been disrupted in such a way that they feel the need for change and protection that the current government couldn’t provide. Also, government can become so corrupt that the people become sick and tired of it. Cases in point are Nicaragua and Cuba. Along with that, both of these governments were told what to do by the United States. People still like to maintain their sovereignty, so they take back their country. Regime Decay also occurs when the economy takes a bad downturn, the standard of living is in shambles, and the government can’t provide the basic necessities that the populace needs to survive.

To start a revolution, on needs substantial power from the mass populace. These Challenges from Below are peasant uprisings against the government. These peasants must establish a strong political organization that demonstrates integrity. They also must establish that they are a viable alternative to the old way of doing things, they must be supported by a majority of the population, and last, they must be too big to be taken care of by the current government. There are two models for this. There is the Western model, which emphasizes the collapse of a government before the revolution, and the Eastern model, which emphasizes the collapse of a government because of the revolution. When western or eastern is said, it refers to specifically the western or eastern hemispheres. In countries where the quality of life is consistently poor the lowest classes have a lower chance of revolt than countries that recently took a downturn. This has a lot to do with people’s expectations on a government. The population usually has a tendency to think that setbacks shouldn’t happen and everything should and will improve all the time. History has dictated that people have unrealistic expectations compared to what actually happens in an economic cycle.

I have a problem with Marx’s theory of revolution. It simply doesn’t apply to real world situations. This kind of rhetoric flies with Third World countries, but with industrialized nations, people are not too keen on throwing away their HD Televisions and computers because they feel they are being treated unfairly. With the Third World, people have much less to lose, and therefore are willing to gamble their lives and livelihood to get change. The revolutions in the industrialized world have been revolutions away from communism, while Third World countries revolutions have been frequently for communism. This reinforces my opinion that people’s way of life and comfort level determines the likelihood of a revolution.

So what segments of the population support revolutions? Well, there is no required type of population that is required to join the movement if it is to succeed. There are five groups of people in revolutions: the fanatic loyalists to the government, the conditional supporters of the government, those that are neither for or against the revolution, those that support the revolution in non military ways, and those that actually pick up weapons and actively try to overthrow a government. These proportions cannot be quantified or measured is any way, since it isn’t feasible to do a Gallup Poll in a war torn country. What is clear is that the revolution must secure a dedicated, strong base to back it up. No half-hearted attempts have won revolutions. There must be strong anti-government sediments and the will to do something about it. I agree with all of these statements. I also agree with the notion that you need a strong base of support to be successful in these actions, although the number of individuals involved is important. To have a better than nominal chance, one needs, in my opinion, at least 50% of the population going with you.

Why do peasants rebel? Simply put, their lives have been disrupted is such a way that they feel compelled to act in their best interest; getting their life back to normal. This can occur when a neo-feudal system is broken and the peasants have no source of income. They simply want the old times back when they can support their family. Which peasants rebel? Well, the peasants who have their lives disrupted the most by modernization. In Latin America, it was found that guerilla movements were made up of people who couldn’t support themselves because they were facing eviction from the land they worked their whole life. Falling crop prices, well economics in general, also threatens farmers who own their own land and sell their crop to a marketplace. Rising costs of living outpaced the demand for their crop, so they rebelled. It seems to me that revolutions occur whenever the peasantry is dissatisfied with the current state of the government. If I were in a position that was unmaintainable and the government wasn’t doing anything to help me, needless to say I would be pretty angry.

Revolutionary leaders are often made up of educated individuals who can mobilize the populace. However, when revolutionaries get into power, they lack the political skill and will to get things done quickly enough for the populace to be happy. Revolutionaries that are born in the government seemingly have less legitimacy since they are already part of the problem. The rural revolutionary has a more romantic feel to it, and therefore is more likely to gain support.

In reflection, I believe the most successful revolutions have been those of the western model, with rural leaders, and a large and strong popular base, like Latin American revolutions.