Causes of Revolutions (from my mid term)

The 20th century has seen more revolutions than any other century since the inception of modern politics. The Third World has been the scene of most of these revolutions in the 20th century. So this begs the question, what leads to the collapse of state power and the rise of a revolution? There are three possible reasons put forth, Inexorable Forces, Regime Decay, and Challenges from Below.
Karl Marx in his Communist Manifesto stated that revolutions would spawn out of industrialized nations as a result of class inequality. He saw the bourgeoisie, i.e. capitalists and land owners, as greedy and uncaring for the masses. He envisioned the working proletariat rising up to overthrow the ruling class and redistribute the wealth equally among all citizens of the nation. His visions influenced the likes of Lenin, Mao Zedong, Ho Chi Minh, Che Guevara, and Fidel Castro. Of those countries, only Cuba maintains its strict communist control over the country. The rest, China, Russia, Vietnam, and Argentina are all embracing capitalism to a larger degree each year. No country had the succession of revolutions that he predicted. Mao changed the Marxist theory to better fit China and succeeded in his revolution. Vietnam and Cuba morphed Marxism into a populist philosophy that worked for their area.
One of the more logical ideas is that of Regime Decay. This occurs when external pressures such as economic collapse (ironic, no?) or war weaken a government so much that the people find it no longer desirable. In the 20th century, this pressure was applied by European nations through economic dominance and military pressures (Cold War). China’s last dynasty was weakened by colonialism. First the nationalists took over, and then the communists acquired control after World War II. Russia’s tsar was overthrown after it got itself entangled into wars and had too much foreign debt. Lenin capitalized on this with his Bolshevik Revolution. And after that revolution, the Cold War excessively weakened the Soviet Union to a point where it collapsed. It has been determined that revolutions start not because of the skill of a revolutionary, but at the ineptitude of the host government. Japanese conquest in World War II of European colonies in Asia didn’t do much to help the case of the mother country, and subsequently, many revolutions happened in Vietnam, Burma and Indonesia. Another thing is that regimes, typically oppressive military ones, become old and so corrupt that the populace can’t stand them any longer. Also, the governments in question could be subservient to a larger regional power like the United States. This had a tendency to happen in Latin America. Also, whenever a country’s economy fails, the lower class has a tendency to blame the government. This also causes revolution in places.
One last reason is pressure from the bottom of the social ladder, Challenges From Below. This happens when the government is unable to sustain its legitimacy by providing services to the populace, and/or there is a strong anti-government movement in the country. It is very necessary for peasants to have a strong political organization that demonstrates integrity. They must establish that they are a viable alternative to the old way of doing things, they must be supported by a majority of the population, and last, they must be too big to be taken care of by the current government. Again, China and Russia are great examples of countries that had an inept government and a popular, successful revolution. But these two countries had different approaches to their revolutions. There was the Western model, which emphasizes the collapse of a government before the revolution, and the Eastern model, which emphasizes the collapse of a government because of the revolution. When western or eastern is said, it refers to specifically the western or eastern hemispheres. An interesting trend has appeared when determining the likelihood of a revolution. In countries where the quality of life is consistently poor the lowest classes have a lower chance of revolt than countries that recently took a downturn. This has a lot to do with people’s expectations on a government. The population usually has a tendency to think that setbacks shouldn’t happen and everything should and will improve all the time. History has dictated that people have unrealistic expectations compared to what actually happens in an economic cycle. A great example of this is the most recent election in the United States. Barak Obama won the popular vote because he appealed to populist rhetoric and promised economic improvement at a time when the economy was hurting many people. In addition to economic trouble, there is also the specter of social unrest due to unfair treatment by the home government.